Design Thinking Strategies for Complex Situations: COVID-19 in Western Australia and New South Wales

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Industrial design, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.

2 Design Out Crime and CPTED Centre, Love Services Pty Ltd, Western Australia, Australia.

3 Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, Australia.

Abstract

This paper outlines an argument for changing the foundation of design thinking practices to include causal feedback loops instead of primarily predicting futures using linear causal relations. The paper suggests for most real-world design situations the traditional linear causal perspective is insufficient and leads to lower value design outcomes. The authors propose instead designers address real-world complex design situations via design methods that include feedback loops, which require different design methods and tools. The discussion in the paper follows the understanding of systems researchers. The authors provide an example of the significant differences in outcomes using a comparative case study of government strategies in Western Australia and New South Wales to address COVID-19 and its adverse consequences including crime. The design of Western Australia’s strategies took into account feedback loops between factors. In contrast, New South Wales government strategies followed a traditional design approach based on linear causal relations without feedback loops similar to that used for long-term resource planning in hospitals. The Western Australian outcomes were significantly better than those of New South Wales in terms of infections, deaths, hospital resource management, and across economic and social benefits and this can be tied to the differences in design approach. The authors contend that in most real-world complex design contexts it is necessary for designers to move away from traditional design thinking based on linear causal relations and instead assume that all design thinking requires consideration of, and prediction of outcomes by, feedback loops between design factors.

Keywords

Main Subjects


ABS. (2021). Australian national accounts: State accounts. Key National Accounts aggregates by state and territory. Reference period 2019-20 financial year. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2024). COVID-19 Mortality in Australia: Deaths registered until 31 January 2024.
Beames, T. (1850). The rookeries of London: past, present and prospective. London: Thomas Bosworth.
Binder, T., Vox, A., Belyazid, S., Haraldsson, H. V., & Svensson, M. (2004). Developing system dynamics models from causal loop diagrams.
Boxall, H., Morgan, A., & Brown, R. (2020). The prevalence of domestic violence among women during the COVID-19 pandemic. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
Bradley, D. T., Mansouri, M. A., Kee, F., & Garcia, L. M. T. (2024). A systems approach to preventing and responding to COVID-19. eClinicalMedicine Lancet, 21(100325). doi:DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100325
Briggs, L. (2012). Tackling wicked problems: A public policy perspective. Canberra: Australian Public Service Commission.
Carrington, K., Morley, C., Warren, S., Harris, B., Vitis, L., Ball, M., & Ryan, V. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on domestic and family violence services and clients: QUT centre for justice research report. Brisbane: QUT Centre for Justice.
Chang, M. J., A., & Egbutah, C. (2015). Public health in planning good practice guide: Town and country planning association. TCPA.
Cohen, L., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: a routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44, p. 588-608.
Covid Live. (2024). Retrieved from https://covidlive.com.au/nsw.
Cozens, P. (2015). Crime and community safety: Challenging the design consensus. In H. Barton, S. Thompson, M. Grant, & S. Burgess (Eds.), Handbook of Planning for Health and Well-Being, p. 162-177. London: Routledge.
Cozens, P. (2015). Crime as an unintended consequence: Planning for healthy cities and the need to move beyond crime prevention through environmental design. In J. Glasson & J. Brunner (Eds.), Contemporary Issues in Australian Urban and Regional Planning. p. 230-250. Routledge.
Cozens, P. (2016). Think crime! using evidence, theory and Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) for planning safer cities (2nd Ed.). Quinns Rocks: Praxis Education.
Cozens, P., & Greive, S. (2009). Designing crime precipitators in Northbridge after dark: Urban governance in slumber. Paper Presented at the Annual State of Australian Cities Conference (SOAC): City Growth, Sustainability, Vitality and Vulnerability, University of Western Australia, Perth.
Cozens, P., & Love, T. (2009). Permeability as a process for controlling crime: A view from western Australia. Special edition of the built environment journal. Security versus safety: How to deliver less crime and more sustainable design. Journal of the Built Environment., 35(3), p. 346-365.
Cozens, P., Neale, R. H., Whitaker, J., & Hillier, D. (2003). Managing crime and the fear of crime at railway stations. A case study in South Wales (UK). International Journal of Transport Management, 1(3), p. 121-132.
Cozens, P., Pascoe, T., & Hillier, D. (2004). The policy and practice of Secured by Design (SBD). Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal, 6(1), p. 13-29.
Dawson, C. J. (2020). Emergency management act 2005 (WA) sections 61, 67, 71 and 72A outbreak restrictions (circuit-break lockdown - level 3). Directions: Police and State Emergency Coordination, Western Australian Government.
Del Carmen, A., & Robinson, M. (2000). Crime prevention through environmental design and consumption control in the United States. The Howard Journal, 39(3), p. 267-289.
Department of Health. (2021). Final report: Evaluation of the operation and effectiveness of COVIDSafe and the National COVIDsafe datastore. Canberra: Department of Health.
Drabek, T. (1986). Human system responses to disaster: An inventory of sociological findings. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Duhl, L. J., & Sanchez, A. K. (1999). Healthy cities and the city planning process. World Health Organisation.
Felson, M., & Clarke, R. V. (1998). Opportunity makes the thief. Practical theory for crime prevention. London: Policing and Reducing Crime Unit.
Felson, M., Jiang, S., & Xu, Y. (2020). Routine activity effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on burglary in Detroit, March 2020. Crime Science, 9(10), p. 1-7. http://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-020-00120
Freeman, K. (2020). Monitoring changes in domestic violence in the wake of COVID-19 social isolation measures. NSW: BOCSAR.
Home Office. (2004). Safer places the planning system and crime prevention. Queen’s Printer and COntroller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office.
ISO. (2021). Security and resilience - Protective security - Guidelines for crime prevention through environmental design ISO 22341:2021 (E). Switzerland: International Standards Authority.
Kerr, C., Stuart, R., Mistry, D., Abeysuriya, R., Rosenfeld, R., Hart, G., & Klein, D. (2021). Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions. Computational Biology.
Kim, M.-T., & Leung, F. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic and crime trends in NSW. NSW: BOCSAR.
Li, F., Sun, Y., Li, X., Hao, X., Li, W., Qian, Y., Liu, H., & Sun, H. (2016). Research on the sustainable development of green-space in beijing using the dynamic systems model. Sustainability, 8(10), 965.
Love, T. (2001). Distributing requisite variety in systems: The roles of human affects, feelings and associated neurological processes. Retrieved from Perth, WA.
Love, T. (2002). Complexity in design management: Layered system dynamics graphs. In P. Ledington & J. Ledington (Eds.), Management Approaches to Complex Systems. Mooloolaba, Qld: University of the Sunshine Coast.
Love, T. (2007). System dynamics modelling of national design infrastructure development. In K. Fielden & J. Sheffield (Eds.), Systemic Development: Local Solutions in a Global Environment. ANSYS 2007 Proceedings, CDROM. Auckland: Unitech.
Love, T. (2008). Design for improving hospital stroke unit processes: Reducing complex systems failures leading to adverse patient outcomes. In C. Rust (Ed.), Design Research Society International Conference 2008: Undisciplined! p. CDROM. Sheffield, UK: Sheffield Hallamn University and Design Research Society.
Love, T. (2009). Complicated and complex crime prevention and the 2-feedback loop law. In T. Cooper, P. Cozens, K. Dorst, P. Henry, & T. Love (Eds.), Proceedings of iDOC’09 What’s Up Doc International Design Out Crime Conference. Perth: Design Out Crime Research Centre.
Love, T. (2010). Design guideline gap and 2 feedback loop limitation: Two issues in design and emotion theory, research and practice. In J. Gregory, K. Sato, & P. Desmet (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th Design and Emotion Conference 2010 Blatantly Blues. Chicago: Institute of Design and Design and Emotion Society.
Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2007). Complex built-environment design: Four extensions to ashby. Kybernetes, 46(9/10), p. 1422-1435.
Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2007). Digital eco-systems pre-design: Variety analyses, system viability and tacit system control mechanisms. In E. Chang & F. K. Hussain (Eds.), 2007 Inaugural IEEE International Conference on Digital Ecosystems and Technologies 21-23 February 2007 Cairns, Australia, p. 452-457. Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE.
Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2008). Machiavelli with extra variety: Taking organisational power and control. Paper presented at the Institute of Enterpreneurship and Terprise Development, Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK, Lancaster, UK.
Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2011). Digital ecosystems: Conceptual optimisation to manage complexity, interoperability and viability (working paper). Love Services Pty Ltd. Quinns Rocks.
Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2011). Using variety analyses to improve educational sustainability and liveability (working paper). Love Services Pty Ltd. Quinns Rocks.
Megahed, N., & Ghoneim, E. (2020). Antivirus-built environment: Lessons learned from Covid-19 pandemic. Sustainable Cities and Society, 61, p. 1-9. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102350
Moss, R., Wood, J., Brown, D., Shearer, F., Black, A. J., Cheng, A. C., & McVernon, J. (2020). Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness (pre-print). Doherty Institute.
Neil, J. (2020). Domestic violence and COVID-19. Our hidden epidemic. Aust J Gen Pract, 49(25). DOI: 10.31128/AJGP-COVID-25
Northridge, M. E., & Sclar, E. (2003). A joint urban planning and public health framework: Contributions to health impact assessment. American Journal of Public Health, 93(1), p. 118-121.
Piquero, A. R., Jennings, W. G., Jemison, E., Kaukinen, C., & Knaul, F. M. (2021). Impact report: COVID-19 and domestic violence trends. Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Washington, DC: National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice.
Proust, K., Newell, B., Brown, H., Capon, A., Browne, C., Burton, A., Dixon, J., Mu, L., & Zarafu, M. (2019). Human health and climate change: Leverage points for adaptation in urban environments. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2012, 9, p. 2134-2158. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph9062134
Richards, T. N., & Nix, J. (2021). Domestic violence calls for help increased during the pandemic – but the answers haven’t gotten any easier. Conversation.
Rittel, H. W. J. (1972). On the planning crisis: Systems analysis of the first and second generations. Bedriftsokonomen, 8.
Rittel, H. W. J. (1972). Son of RittleThink, DMG Occasional Paper No. 1 (Jan 1972). In Design Methods Group 5th Anniversary Report, p. 5-10. Design Methods Group.
Rittel, H. W. J. (1984). Second generation design methods. In N. Cross (Ed.), Developments in Design Methodology. London: John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
Rittel, H. W. J., & Webber, M. W. (1972). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, working paper, institute of urban development. Berkely, USA: University of California. No 194.
Rittel, H. W. J., & Webber, M. M. (1974). Wicked Problems. In N. Cross, D. Elliot, & R. Roy (Eds.), Man-made Futures. London: Hutchinson and Co (Publishers) Ltd. p. 272-280.
Rittel, H. W. J., & Webber, M. M. (1984). Planning problems are wicked problems. In N. Cross (Ed.), Developments in Design Methodology. London: John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
Sharma, A., & Borah, S. V. (2020). Covid-19 and domestic violence: an indirect path to social and economic crisis. Journal of Family Violence. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10896-020-00188-8
Shipway, C., & Homel, P. (1999). Safer cities and towns: Crime prevention planning in rural New South Wales. Sydney: Crime prevention division, NSW Attorney-General’s Department.
Sterman, J. D. (2002). All models are wrong: Reflections on Becoming a Systems Scientist. System Dynamics Review, 18(4), p. 501-531. Retrieved from https://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/All_Models_Are_Wrong_(SDR).pdf
Stickle, B., & Felson, M. (2020). Crime rates in a pandemic: the largest criminological experiment in history. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 45, p. 525–536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-020-09546-0
WHO. (2020). COVID-19 and violence against women What the health sector/system can do. World Health Organisation, Human Reproduction Programme.
WHO. (2020). Integrating health in urban and territorial planning: A sourcebook. UN-Habitat and World Health Organization.
Yiftachel, O. (2001). Introduction: Outlining the power of planning. In O. Yiftachel, I. Alexander, D. Hedgcock, & J. Little (Eds.), The power of planning: Spaces of Control and Transformation. KluwerAcademic.
Yiftachel, O., & Huxley, M. (2000). Debating dominance and relevance: Notes on the communicative turn in planning theory. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 24(4), 907–913.